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How to identify risk factors for an IPO

 

 

According to Wikipedia, an Initial Public Offering (IPO) is the first sale of stock by a private company to the public. IPOs are often issued by smaller, younger companies seeking capital to expand, but can also be done by large privately-owned companies looking to become publicly traded.

It is often said that the Prospectus is the Investor’s best friend.  In addition to that here are a few ways to detect possible red flags on companies that are issuing their stock to the public for the first time. 

 

1.       Business model – developing a new business model can be difficult and may adversely affect a company if it does not work as expected

2.       Going-concern determination – this is when an auditor analyses a company’s books and it is determined that the company is expected to run out of cash soon, the best thing is to avoid this kind of stock

3.       Competition – competition is a healthy sign but it is always good to know the various competitors and their share of the market

4.       Recent transition to a new business – this may indicate loss of focus and/or lack of clear goals for the future

5.       Negative gross margins – this may indicate that the company is not likely to make money any time soon, that is, if ever

6.       Legal proceedings – lawsuits may drain resources of a company and sometimes divert management’s attention from profitable business operations

7.       Inexperienced management team – a public company requires competent management to run the business operations if the management team is inexperienced this may be an obstacle to the performance of the company

8.       Operational systems – a strong infrastructure can handle increasing amounts of volume so the ability of operational systems to facilitate delivery of products or services in a timely manner is crucial

9.       Product concentration – does the company have a variety of products?  If a company depends on only one product and that product fails to live up to expectations the value of the stock of the company might be significantly affected

10.   Market and customer base – a company with a potentially large and fast growing market might be an ideal candidate for IPO investment.  Young businesses can be considered with caution.

11.   Low priced stocks – penny stock IPOs (stocks offered at extremely low prices) are highly risky because many of these companies have little capital with which to expand their businesses

12.   Prior unsuccessful offering – this may mean that the company was not able to convince investors to purchase the IPO

13.   History of loan default – if a company has had problems with defaulting on loans then issuing an IPO might be an act of desperation to get out of their financial troubles